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Free E-commerce Modeling Engine

Shopify ROAS & CPA Forecaster

Accurately model your break-even ad targets, forecast required conversion rates, and map out net profitability margins after gateway and shipping fees.

Product & Acquisition Economics

Average Order Value (AOV, $)
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS, %) 30%
Variable Gateway & Shipping Fees (%) 15%
Monthly Paid Ad Spend ($)
Historical Conversion Rate (%)
Target Net Profit Margin (%) 20%

Acquisition Targets & Forecasts

Break-Even ROAS
1.82x
Ad spend returns needed to cover costs
Break-Even CPA
$55.00
Maximum allowable cost per purchase
Target ROAS (20% Net Margin)
2.27x
Required ad return to hit margin targets
Target CPA
$44.00
Ideal acquisition target spend
Forecasted Monthly Orders / Net Profit
114 orders / $2,272.73
Projected Monthly Revenue: $11,363.64
Scale Your Shopify Store margins

Who This Is For

  • Scaling Shopify Brands: Stores looking to improve conversion rates, lower CAC, and optimize margins.
  • Attribution-Focused Marketers: Teams losing Meta Ads attribution due to cookie blocks, wanting to implement clean server-side CAPI.
  • Operational Teams: Brands looking to automate order tagging, custom inventory alerts, and refund workflows.

Who This Is NOT For

  • Pre-Revenue Stores: Brands that do not have active traffic or orders and haven't found product-market fit.
  • No Paid Acquisition: Brands not running paid social/search campaigns or looking for basic organic search only.

Flagship Implementation Offer

7-Day Revenue Automation Sprint

In one focused week, Mehvar's core engineering team audits your Shopify storefront and ad account, deploys server-side Conversion API tracking, connects 3–5 custom operations webhooks, and delivers a Postgres analytics dashboard to maximize ROAS.

Pricing: $2,500 – $5,000 USD
Start a 7-Day Revenue Automation Sprint

Or book our diagnostic AI Growth Consultation ($200) — 100% credited toward the Sprint.

Related: Shopify ROAS Calculator · LTV Calculator · About Our Principal Architect

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Break-Even ROAS?

The minimum ad returns required to cover your product cost of goods (COGS) and payment gateway or shipping fees.

Why is target ROAS higher than break-even ROAS?

Because target ROAS factors in your desired net profit margin (e.g. 20%) so that you generate a net profit instead of just breaking even.

How do I lower my ad acquisition costs (CPA)?

Improve storefront landing page conversion speed, run creative ads testing, and deploy server-side tracking (CAPI) to optimize paid traffic models.

Want us to build these automations for you in 7 days?

Book Your 7-Day Sprint →

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